Election Insights
Election Insights is a political analysis publication of the Business Industry Political Action Committee (BIPAC). BIPAC is an independent, bipartisan organization, that is supported by several hundred of the nation’s leading businesses and trade associations.  The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of our organization.


September 28, 2016
Waiting for Debate Fallout and Louisiana Senate Race Heats Up
by Jim Ellis 

President

Now in presidential debate season, the undetermined factors that will eventually control the outcome are starting to unfold.  Donald Trump did not fare well in the first debate overall, particularly in the second half after arguably turning in a strong early debate performance.  Still, he didn’t make any crushing mistake. Continuing to gain on Hillary Clinton in polling, the race is apparently headed to a political photo finish in November.

The current Electoral College map suggests that Trump has a path to 266 electoral votes, meaning he’s alive to win in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Nevada, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District (Maine is one of two states – Nebraska is the other – that can split its electoral votes).  This configuration, however, leaves him one state short.  Expect major battles in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and now Colorado.  Any one of these states going to Trump would elect him if the aforementioned state forecast proves correct.

Still, the overall map favors a Clinton win because she maintains a small, but consistent national lead both in the popular vote and Electoral College, meaning that less has to go right for her to win the national election.  For Trump, the entire aforementioned scenario would have to break his way for victory to occur.

The big polling news of the week came from the states, as surveys are now suggesting that Colorado is very much in play for Trump.  Six polls have been conducted there in September, and all show the Centennial State contest within the margin of error.  Trump actually leads in three of the six studies.

Senate

We’re seeing movement in one Senate race and conflict in a pair of others.  In Louisiana, two new polls find state Treasurer John Kennedy’s (R) jungle primary lead evaporating as he is not yet countering his opponents’ extensive campaign ads.

A new JMC Analytics poll that earlier gave Kennedy a major lead, has now entirely dissipated.  The new survey (9/22-25; 905 LA registered voters) found several candidates usurping Kennedy.  The closely bunched field means any two of the top five candidates are in position to advance to the December 10th run-off.  Louisiana holds its qualifying election concurrently with the general election. 

According to JMC, Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) and Democratic Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell lead the field, but with only 15% support apiece.  Rep. John Fleming (R-Minden/Shreveport), who has been spending heavily on television ads lately, has catapulted from the second tier into third place with 14%, just one point from the top, followed closely by former Lt. Governor candidate Caroline Fayard’s (D) 12%.  Kennedy, in this poll, drops all the way to 11 percent. 

The SMOR Louisiana poll (9/15-17; 500 LA likely voters) finds a similar configuration.  They still see Kennedy leading with 15%, though tied with Boustany, Fayard at 11%, Campbell 9%, and Fleming 8%.  This contest is now officially a free-for-all to the November 8th election.

The latest data is also producing conflicting leaders in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.  In the PA race, five individual pollsters during the September 12-25 period all forecast Sen. Pat Toomey (R) and Democrat Katie McGinty within a margin of no more than four points.  Two polls apiece show McGinty and Toomey both leading slightly, while a fifth poll forecasts a tie.

In the Tar Heel State, six polls conducted during the September 12-23 period also see different leaders.  In three, challenger Deborah Ross (D) scores an advantage, while two still show Sen. Richard Burr (R) with the edge.  One of the polls forecasts a tie. 

Louisiana, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, along with New Hampshire and Nevada, feature dead heat races.  Combined, these campaigns will determine which party controls the Senate in the next Congress.

House

House polls are usually few and far between, but two released during the past week give us a glimpse into a pair of important campaigns.

Because Maine splits its electoral votes, Donald Trump continues to be in position to take at least one vote from the Pine Tree State.  According to the Normington Petts research firm polling for the Emily Cain (D) congressional campaign (9/21-22; 400 ME-2 likely voters), Trump maintains a 44-40% lead over Hillary Clinton in the largely rural 2nd District.  Even with this boost, Rep. Bruce Poliquin (R-Oakland/Bangor) can manage only a 45-45% tie with former state Senator Cain.  Poliquin defeated her 45-40% in 2014.

In Iowa, freshman Rep. David Young (R-Van Meter/Des Moines), a top Democratic target, is leading comfortably according to a new Tarrance Group survey (9/20-22; 400 IA-3 voters; conducted for the Young campaign and the National Republican Congressional Committee).  According to this poll, Young maintains a commanding 52-37% advantage over Iraq War veteran Jim Mowrer (D), who was the Democratic nominee in the adjacent district two years ago.


September 21, 2016
Senate Races Tighten  
by Jim Ellis 

President

The candidates are in final debate preparation mode, as the long-awaited 2016 general election issue exchange forums begin on Monday, September 26th.  Ratings estimates project more than 100 million viewers, numbers only reached by various Super Bowl games, will tune into the first session hosted by NBC News' Lester Holt.

The week's national polling featured seven polls, including daily trackers Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California, Morning Consult, and Rasmussen Reports.  Also included in the latest time group are spot pollsters Fox News, NBC/Survey Monkey, St. Leo University (FL), Ipsos/Reuters, and YouGov/The Economist. 

As a way to gauge the polling, Hillary Clinton averages a one-point lead from the eight surveys.  Though it is methodologically incorrect to average disparate polls, particularly groups that include daily trackers with spot surveyors, the process does allow us to draw the reasonable conclusion that the national popular vote count is in toss-up range.

The eight-poll spread, all conducted from September 10-19, range from a high respondent sample of 13,230 (NBC/Survey Monkey; Clinton +5) to a low of 867 (Fox News; Clinton +1) likely voters.  The ballot test range stretches ten points from Clinton +6 (St. Leo University) to Trump +4 (LA Times/USC).  Again, Trump generally performs better with the daily trackers (LA Times: +4; Rasmussen Reports: +2; Morning Consult: -2) than he does among traditional spot pollsters: Fox: Clinton +1, St. Leo University: Clinton +6, NBC/Survey Monkey: Clinton +5, YouGov/The Economist: Clinton +2.  The lone spot surveyor to find Trump leading is Ipsos/Reuters, at +2.

Senate

As the election draws closer, more and more Senate surveys are being released to help us handicap the individual races and how, together, they will allow one party to become the majority.

New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) has re-assumed the lead over Gov. Maggie Hassan, 47-45% according to new data from New Jersey's Monmouth University (9/17-20; 400 NH likely voters).  This favorable Republican result contrasts with the presidential question, which was much more positive for Hillary Clinton.  In the national race, Monmouth finds the former Secretary of State leading beyond the margin of polling error, 47-38-10-3%, with the latter numbers breaking for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

St. Leo University again surveyed their home state of Florida, one of the most critically important political states in the country.  Like in New Hampshire, this Florida poll (9/10-16; 1,103 FL adults; 1,005 FL likely voters) finds a Republican incumbent, Sen. Marco Rubio topping his Democratic opponent, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter), by a substantial 44-35% spread in this case, while the same polling sample yields a Hillary Clinton advantage of 49-44-6% over Trump and Libertarian Johnson. 

Two surveys came forth from Senate states that have not attracted a great deal of attention throughout the year.  The Louisiana Senate race, whose jungle primary runs concurrently with the general election, features a major tightening according to a new Southern Media & Opinion Research poll (9/15-17; 500 LA likely voters). 

Originally, state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) enjoyed a lock on first position.  Under the Louisiana system, the top two primary finishers will advance to a run-off on December 10th, assuming no one receives a majority vote.  This new survey still finds Mr. Kennedy tracking in the first run-off slot, but with only 17% of the sample preference, almost 20 points down from his original standing.  Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) is second with 15%, followed by Caroline Fayard (11%), the former Democratic Lt. Governor candidate, and Public Service Commissioner and ex-Democratic statewide candidate Foster Campbell (9%).  Former Air Force officer and US Senate candidate Rob Maness (R) and ex-state Rep. and Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke (R) each share 3% support.

Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk (R) continues to trail his Democratic opponent, Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-Northern Chicago Suburbs) in another race where polls are few and far between.  According to the new Loras University data (9/13-16; 600 IL likely voters), Ms. Duckworth continues to register an average five-point lead, this time 41-36%.

House

The major House news concerns finalizing a nominee in the open Arizona 5th District.  After the official canvass and re-count concluded early in the week, state Senate President Andy Biggs won the Republican primary with just a 27-vote margin from more than 85,000 cast ballots.  Former Go.Daddy.com executive Christine Jones, who led on Election Night by 576 votes before absentee and provisional ballots were counted, conceded after the re-count process pushed Biggs' small margin from nine to 27 votes.  She chose not to further challenge the results, and ended the campaign.  Sen. Biggs now becomes the prohibitive favorite to capture the safe Republican seat in November.

A new Dan Jones & Associates Utah poll is brining good news for freshman Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs).  After defeating attorney Doug Owens (D) 51-45% in 2014, Love is now polling in much stronger position.  According to the Jones' poll (9/12-19; 409 UT-4 likely voters), Rep. Love enjoys a major 53-35% advantage over Mr. Owens.

Governor

One Governor's note to share: the New Hampshire Governor's race between Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu, and fellow Executive Council member Colin Van Ostern (D) was also included in the aforementioned Monmouth University poll.  The early general election numbers for this race break 49-43% in Mr. Sununu's favor. 


September 14, 2016
Clinton Leads and New Senate Polling
by Jim Ellis  

President

Hillary Clinton's health situation dominated the latest presidential campaign coverage, but polling taken before her weekend problems became public still shows a tightening of the national campaign. 

Eight polls were conducted from the September 1-11 period, and while six surveys still find Ms. Clinton leading, her margins continue to hover only in the 1.5% range with a spread of Clinton +5 (ABC News/Washington Post) to Trump +3 (Los Angeles Times/USC).  Clinton's high watermark in any poll touched 45% (ABC News/Washington Post) and her low was 40% (Ipsos/Reuters; YouGov/The Economist).  Trump also reached 45% (CNN), while his low was 38% (Ipsos/Reuters; YouGov/The Economist).  

Senate

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH) was re-nominated with 79% of the vote in the New Hampshire Republican primary this week.  She defeated a former state Representative and three also-ran GOP candidates.  Gov. Maggie Hassan was unopposed on the Democratic side.  The New Hampshire campaign is a toss-up, and likely one of three Senate races - Pennsylvania and Nevada are the other two - that will decide which party controls the majority in the next Congress.

Republicans received good news from a series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College polls.  Often seen as a poll that skews Democratic, the latest series points to better-than-expected Republican totals in four states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

According to the media/college entity, Sen. John McCain (R) has opened up a 57-38% lead over Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff).  This is a surprising number in light of McCain only obtaining 52% of the Republican primary vote on August 30th.  The Kirkpatrick media blitz, attempting to tie him to Donald Trump, apparently hasn't struck a chord with the Arizona electorate.

In Georgia, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) comes roaring back after a relatively close poll surfaced last month.  Isakson leads the current NBC/WSJ/Marist survey, 53-38%. 

Turning to Nevada, the NBC/WSJ/Marist data finds Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) leading former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D), 47-45%, which is consistent with many other polls of this contest.  Public Policy Polling, however, releasing their survey results at the same time, projects Masto holding a one-point 42-41% edge.

The group's most surprising poll is in New Hampshire.  After trailing in polls through much of August, Sen. Ayotte has now ballooned to an eight-point advantage, 52-44%, according to this most recent research study.  Since this poll is inconsistent with a plethora of other surveys released in July, August, and early September, it is possible that this particular survey may be an outlier.

House

The last major primary date occurred during the week, and one incumbent almost paid the ultimate political price.  Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH-1; Manchester/Sea Coast) appears to have barely won re-nomination over businessman Rich Ashooh, edging him by 661 votes with four precincts still outstanding. 

He now faces former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) for the fourth time in six years.  Ms. Shea-Porter lost her re-election effort twice in four attempts.  She was originally elected in 2006, defeated in 2010 (by Guinta), re-captured the seat in 2012 (beating Guinta), lost again in 2014 (again to Guinta), and now returns for what will likely be another close election.

Delaware Rep. John Carney (D-Wilmington) running for Governor leaves the state's lone congressional seat open.  Former state Labor Secretary Lisa Blunt Rochester easily topped a state Senator and an ex-gubernatorial aide to capture the Democratic nomination, which is likely her ticket to Washington in November.  Delaware has become a reliably Democratic state.  

Governor

The New Hampshire congressional race was not the only close primary contest.  The Republicans' open gubernatorial primary proved equally as tight.  Here, Executive Councilor Chris Sununu (R), son of former Governor and White House chief of staff John Sununu, leads self-funding state Rep. Frank Edelblut by only 1,000+ votes with 20 precincts still unaccounted.  The eventual winner, probably Mr. Sununu, will face fellow Executive Council member Colin Van Ostern who easily won his Democratic primary.  A tight general election is expected.  Incumbent Governor Maggie Hassan (D) is running for Senate.

In Delaware, the stage is set for Rep. John Carney (D) to succeed term-limited state chief executive Jack Markell (D).  Mr. Carney was unopposed in the Democratic primary.  Republican state Senator Colin Bonini easily won his party's nomination, but Rep. Carney is now a heavy favorite to become Governor in the general election.


September 7, 2016
Battleground States Tilt to Clinton, but Trump Closes Gap Nationally  
by Jim Ellis

President

There appears to be a decided shift toward Donald Trump in the polls conducted during the period beginning August 30th.  Ten polls, from ten different pollsters, were conducted and the split between the two major party candidates averages only 1.2%.  The range stretches from Hillary Clinton +4 to Donald Trump +2.

Of the ten, six find Clinton leading (Fox News, George Washington University/ Battleground, Morning Consult, NBC/Survey Monkey, Franklin Pierce University/ Boston Herald, and The Economist/YouGov), two show Trump up (Rasmussen Reports, CNN/ORC), and a pair projects the two falling into a flat tie (Investors Business Daily/TIPP, and Los Angeles Times/University of Southern California).

The Washington Post joined with the Survey Monkey organization to produce our first full 50-state poll.  While looking at the four-candidate splits - those including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein - most of the individual state findings are consistent with other published polls and vote history, but several are not.

Colorado, Georgia, Mississippi, Nevada, Texas, and Wisconsin appear to have produced results that should be considered anomalies. 

Colorado showing a 37-37% tie between Clinton and Trump deviates from all other data that project the former Secretary of State to be clearly ahead.  Wisconsin being considered a toss-up also flies in the face of all other surveys that consistently have produced Clinton leads.

Georgia, Mississippi, and Texas are southern states where Republicans typically perform better than they poll.  It is likely that the same pattern will hold true this year and Trump will win comfortable victories in each place.

Nevada has been routinely polling either as a toss-up or leaning toward Trump.  The Washington Post/Survey Monkey data, however, forecasts it as leaning toward Ms. Clinton. 

Overall, these state-by-state results could reasonably give Clinton as many as 261 votes as compared to Trump's 186, with the remaining ten states being considered toss-ups.  Therefore, the best reasonable Trump finish still looks to break 273-265 in Clinton's favor.

Senate

Several new polls are out, which portray a national Senate picture that continues toward absolute parity between the parties.  It appears that three Republican states are likely to switch allegiance: Illinois (Sen. Mark Kirk), Indiana (Open - Sen. Dan Coats), and Wisconsin (Sen. Ron Johnson). 

This means the pure toss-up states of New Hampshire (Sen. Kelly Ayotte-R vs. Gov. Maggie Hassan-D), Pennsylvania (Sen. Pat Toomey-R vs. Katie McGinty-D), and the open Nevada seat of retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (Rep. Joe Heck-R vs. former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto-D) will probably determine majority status.  The party winning two of these three contests will likely hold nominal control.  It now appears the Senate will split either 51-49 or 50-50, with each party having a chance to reach the 51 number.

Several polls each see the New Hampshire and Pennsylvania races falling within the margin of error and leads being exchanged.  More North Carolina results again find two-term Sen. Richard Burr (R) and former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D) landing in the toss-up category.  Other multiple polls within the individual state post Sens. Charles Grassley (R-IA) and Roy Blunt (R-MO) to leads beyond the polling margin of error.

House

Major House news occurred as absentee and provisional vote counting concluded in Arizona.  Surprisingly, the final counting in the open 5th District potentially produced a different winner than we saw on election night.

On August 30th, former GoDaddy.com executive Christine Jones appeared to have won the Republican primary.  She led state Senate President Andy Biggs by 876 votes with all Election Day and early votes counted.  The revised final count found her lead dropping to 578, which still looked like enough to sustain the nomination victory when considering the number of outstanding ballots that remained.

As the Labor Day holiday weekend concluded, however, Biggs actually surpassed Jones by the slimmest of margins: just nine votes.  The unofficial final tally shows both candidates garnering 29% of the vote, or a raw total of 25,228 to 25,219.  Candidates Don Shapely, a former Maricopa County Supervisor, and state Representative Justin Olson took 21 and 20%, respectively.

The official precinct canvass is now underway, which could again change this outcome since the two are separated by such a thin margin.  Arizona election law requires the post-election canvass to be completed no later than September 12th.  Once the official vote totals are tabulated, a re-count will begin.  It is safe to say that resolving this virtually tied contest will likely take several weeks before re-counting and legal challenges culminate in a final decision.  The eventual Republican primary winner will claim the seat in November, since this district is safe for the GOP. 


August 31, 2016
Clinton Leads while Rubio and McCain Win Primaries 
by Jim Ellis

President

The presidential polling is delivering more of the same.  Nine national polls were released since August 23rd, and Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in eight of them.  Her average margin continues to tighten, and now is under four points, at 3.7 if each poll is rated equally, with a swing of Clinton +7 all the way to Trump +3.

The one poll consistently finding Trump ahead comes from the LA Times/ University of Southern California.  As previously mentioned this survey is different in that it continually polls, asking 400 different people questions from a sampling pool of the same 3,000 registered voters.  Therefore, the entire respondent universe will participate in the tracking poll approximately once per week and allows the pollsters to track the ebbs and flows of the same group over a long period of time. 

Senate

The late summer's most significant primary occurred this week, with major results coming from Arizona and Florida.

Sen. John McCain (R), seeking a sixth term, was re-nominated but scored only 52% among his own Republican Party voters.  Though he put 13 points between him and his top challenger, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, a full 48% of voting Republicans chose another candidate.  Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) was unopposed on the Democratic side.  McCain landing only in the low 50s for this primary suggests that the general election could become highly competitive. 

Turning to Florida, Sen. Marco Rubio (R), coming back to the Senate race from his failed presidential run, recorded 72% in winning re-nomination.  Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter) claimed his party's nomination with 59% against fellow Rep. Alan Grayson's (D-Orlando) 19%.  Though Rep. Murphy will be a strong opponent to Sen. Rubio, the incumbent appears to be gaining steady momentum and has to be considered the favorite as the general election begins.

House

The big primary news this week is twelve-term Rep. Corrine Brown's (D-Jacksonville) defeat in the new 5th District that now stretches from Jacksonville to Tallahassee.  Previously, the district moved south from Jacksonville through Gainesville, Sanford, and Orlando.  Former state legislator and two-time congressional candidate Al Lawson scored a 48-39% victory over Brown, badly beating her in the new portion of the district, including Tallahassee.  Rep. Brown easily topped the vote in Jacksonville and her previous territory. 

Mr. Lawson will now move to the general election where he will win a landslide November victory in the safely Democratic district.  Ms. Brown becomes the fifth House incumbent to lose re-nomination, the third due to mid-decade redistricting.  

In South Florida, the primary attracting the most national political attention featured Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Weston) and law professor Tim Canova.  Both spent over $3 million on the race that also involved a public division between the party's two presidential candidates.  Ms. Wasserman Schultz, who unceremoniously lost her position as Democratic National Committee chair largely over accusations of bias toward Hillary Clinton, scored a 57-43% victory over Canova who Bernie Sanders actively supported.  The Congresswoman is now safe for the general election.  Despite the media attention, Democratic primary turnout was low with just over 50,000 people participating.

Rep. Dan Webster (R-Orlando), who found himself a major victim of the mid-decade redistricting plan as his Republican-leaning 10th District was turned safely Democratic, found a new home in the adjacent open 11th District.  Rep. Webster recorded 60% of the primary vote and is now heavily favored in the general election.  Former Orlando Police chief Val Demings won the Democratic primary in the new 10th CD, and will come to Washington with an expected easy general election victory.

In Rep. Murphy's vacated 18th District, disabled Afghan War veteran Brian Mast won a crowded Republican primary and will now face businessman Randy Perkins (D) in the competitive general election.  Despite Mr. Murphy twice winning the district, the seat tilts Republican.  Mr. Mast's compelling story could provide the boost the Republicans need to put this seat back into their column.

Former Rep. Joe Garcia (D-Miami) scored a close 51-49% Democratic primary victory over party establishment favorite Annette Taddeo.  He will now face freshman Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Miami) in a re-match of the 2014 race that saw Garcia unseated.  Redistricting made this seat more Democratic, so the general election promises to be hard fought with a tight conclusion.

Other Florida open seat primary winners who are heavy general election favorites are state Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL-1; replacing retiring Rep. Jeff Miller-R), Dr. Neal Dunn (R-FL-2; replacing retiring Rep. Gwen Graham-D), former Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford (R-FL-4; succeeding retiring Rep. Ander Crenshaw-R), state Sen. Darren Soto (D-FL-9; replacing Rep. Alan Grayson-D who unsuccessfully ran for Senate), and former US Ambassador Francis Rooney (R-FL-19; who will replace retiring Rep. Curt Clawson-R).

Florida incumbents winning re-nomination against primary opponents were: Reps. Ron DeSantis (R-Daytona), John Mica (R-Winter Park), David Jolly (R-Pinellas County), Frederica Wilson (D-Miami Gardens), and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Miami). 

The two open Arizona seats appear to have produced general election nominees.  In Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's expansive 1st District, controversial Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu won the Republican primary with 32% of the vote.  He will face former state Senator Tom O'Halleran, an ex-Republican, in what is one of the few truly political marginal districts remaining in the country.  The general election will be rated as a toss-up.  Ms. Kirkpatrick advances to the statewide Senate general election against John McCain.

Retiring Rep. Matt Salmon's (R-Mesa) 5th District appears headed to former GoDaddy.com executive Christine Jones, as she leads the Republican primary with an 876-vote spread.  Her margin should be enough to withstand any uncounted absentee or provisional votes that may remain.  Ms. Jones likely defeated state Senate President Andy Biggs, former Maricopa County Supervisor Don Stapley, and state Rep. Justin Olsen in a race that divided 30-29-22-20% among the four contenders.  The 5th is safely Republican, and Ms. Jones is likely the region's new Congresswoman.


August 24, 2016
Polls Still Favor Clinton and August Primaries Loom
by Jim Ellis 

President

The presidential polling seems to be normalizing.  Donald Trump is now getting back into a closer range with Hillary Clinton.  Though she still leads in almost every poll, the margin is closer to an average of about four percentage points.  At the depths of Trump's post-convention period, Clinton's lead was closer to nine points.

The one poll finding Trump ahead comes from the LA Times/University of Southern California.  Their latest track shows the Republican nominee building a national lead of 45-43%.  The LA Times/USC poll is different in that it continually polls, asking 400 different people questions from a sampling pool of 3,000 registered voters.  Therefore, the entire respondent universe will participate in the tracking poll approximately once per week.  This type of polling is referred to as a "panel-back" survey because the pollster tracks the same individuals throughout the electoral process, finding how a consistent group responds to the twists and turns of the political campaign.

A major conflict is coming from all-important Florida.  Arguably the presidential campaign's most important swing state - the Republicans, for example, simply can't win the national election without carrying Florida - diverse polling data is being currently reported.

St. Leo University, a 16,000+ student Catholic education institution located 35 miles northeast of Tampa, created their own Polling Institute in 2013.  This week, they released a Florida electorate poll (8/14-18; 1,500 FL adults; 1,380 FL likely voters) that finds Hillary Clinton expanding her support to a 52% of the respondent sample as compared to only 38% for Trump.  Since the same polling sample gives Sen. Marco Rubio (R) his largest general election lead (46-38%) of any recorded survey, this poll should be taken seriously.

On the heels of the St. Leo poll, another Sunshine State educational entity, Florida Atlantic University, released their data just a day later.  This survey (8/19-22; 1,200 FL likely voters) finds a diametrically opposite conclusion, yet the two are methodologically similar, though St. Leo relies totally upon online responses. 

According to Florida Atlantic, Trump actually rebounds in the state to the point of outpacing Ms. Clinton, 43-41%.  Rather stunningly, FAU does find a similar result as St. Leo in the Senate race.  While the latter posted Sen. Rubio to a 46-38% advantage, Florida Atlantic arrived at a similar 44-39% split in the Republican incumbent's favor.

Much more research will have to be conducted in this critical state, considering the current results are so far flung.  Comparatively, these two polls give us the least consistent data of any research in the country.

Senate

In addition to the St. Leo and Florida Atlantic data reported above about the Rubio-Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter) presumed Florida Senate race, Monmouth University released two Senate polls of their own.  The Democratic primary contest between Mr. Murphy and Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) will be decided next week, on August 30th. 

In Missouri, the University's survey (8/19-22; 401 MO likely voters) finds Sen. Roy Blunt (R) leading Secretary of State Jason Kander (D), 48-43%, a five-point spread.  The result falls exactly in the middle of the Blunt advantage range.  Four polls from a quartet of different research firms have conducted Missouri polls since July 10th, and the Senator leads in all from between three and seven points.

Monmouth also tested the Ohio electorate and their data confirms what we have been seeing developing in this Senate race for the past couple of weeks.  That is, Sen. Rob Portman (R) pulling away from his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland.  Here, Monmouth went into the field during the 8/18-21 period, and surveyed 402 likely Ohio voters.  They find the Senator's advantage over Strickland to be 48-40%.

These results are in line with the other Ohio August public polls.  Four have been released since the beginning of the month and Portman now enjoys leads of five, nine, seven, and eight percentage points according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, CBS News/YouGov, and Monmouth, respectively.

Previously, the Ohio Senate race was polling as dead even for months.

House

No primaries occurred this week, but the late summer's major nomination date of August 30th is fast approaching.  The day features the Florida primary, which will determine nominees in seven open seats from the state's 27 congressional districts. 

The two incumbents facing major challenges are Democrat Corrine Brown (D-Jacksonville), who has a severely re-drawn congressional seat that now expands to Tallahassee from Jacksonville instead of Orlando along with facing a federal indictment, and Republican Dan Webster (R-Orlando) who is running from an adjacent district to the one he previously represented.  The court-ordered redistricting radically changed Webster's 10th District, but he took advantage of an open 11th CD of which he currently represents 20% of the population.

Democrats will choose a nominee in South Florida for what will be a hotly contested race against freshman Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R-Miami).  Former Rep. Joe Garcia (D), who Curbelo unseated in 2014, and businesswoman Annette Taddeo, who enjoys strong Washington establishment support, are vying for the nomination.

Arizonans also vote on 8/30.  Two key open districts will choose nominees: the sprawling 1st District, where Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) is leaving the House to challenge Sen. John McCain (R), and Maricopa County's 5th District where Rep. Matt Salmon (R) is retiring.


August 17, 2016
Clinton Leads and Cheney Wins in WY
by Jim Ellis 

President

Donald Trump, after engineering another campaign shake-up and demoting campaign manager Paul Manafort, is turning to give policy speeches.  He addressed audiences in Miami, Florida; Youngstown, Ohio; and West Bend, Wisconsin this week, giving nationally covered economic, social, and foreign policy addresses.  Obviously, the locations are all in top priority swing states.

Three pollsters released head-to-head ballot test surveys in the early week.  UPI/C-Voter, NBC/Survey Monkey, and Morning Consult all reported data.  Each shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, by an average of 7.3 percentage points.  But, when looking at the polls that add minor party candidates Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, and Jill Stein (Green Party), or "others" to their respondent questionnaire, the margin between the two major party candidates tightens.    

NBC/Survey Monkey and Morning Consult did ask a second question that included Johnson and an "other" response.  Rasmussen Reports was also active in this week's time frame, and exclusively posed the multi-candidate question.

Combined, the three pollsters yield an average 5.0% spread between the major party candidates when the minor contenders are identified to the respondents.  The pattern of Trump pulling somewhat closer to Clinton when the Johnson and/or Stein are included has been recurring for several weeks.

The more relevant polls are those that include the Libertarian and Green Party nominees because they will have a strong presence on ballots throughout the country.  Mr. Johnson is on all 50 state ballots plus the District of Columbia.  Dr. Stein has qualified in 27 states and has the chance to win placement in 16 others.  Since the overwhelming majority of voters will have the opportunity to vote for Johnson and Stein, it is legitimate to put more emphasis on the polls that contain both of their names.

Senate

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was easily re-nominated for a third full term earlier in the week.  She defeated three minor Republican opponents with 72% of the vote.  Facing Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former state legislator, she will find little trouble securing another victory in the general election.

This race is quite different than her last re-election bid.  Then, she was upset in the Republican primary by a Tea Party activist but returned in the general election as a write-in Independent.  Considering the difficult logistics to win any write-in campaign, but particularly one as spread out and in such difficult terrain as Alaska, her 2010 victory was one of the most impressive of the past decade.  Sen. Murkowski's 2016 re-election bid will be considerably easier and certainly less dramatic than what she experienced six years ago.

A new Data Orbital survey (8/6-8; 500 AZ Republican likely primary voters) finds Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) pulling away from challenger Kelli Ward, a former GOP state Senator.  The Data Orbital ballot test gives the veteran Senator a 50-29% advantage heading into the August 30th primary.  Assuming he wins re-nomination, which appears highly likely, Sen. McCain will face Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff) in what promises to become a competitive general election.

House

The at-large Wyoming primary was held early this week and Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President, US Defense Secretary, and five-term Wyoming Congressman Dick Cheney (R), won the Republican congressional primary.  She took 40% of the vote compared to her next closest competitor, state Sen. Leland Christensen's 22% in the nine-candidate pool. 

Ms. Cheney advances to the general election where she will face the new Democratic nominee, energy contractor Ryan Greene.  Last night's victory was tantamount to winning the open seat in the fall, however.  Ms. Cheney will replace retiring four-term Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R-Cheyenne), who chose not to seek re-election.

The Alaska primary was also held, and Rep. Don Young (R-Ft. Yukon) topped 71% of the vote on his way to winning re-nomination for a 24th term.  He will face competition in the general election in the person of former Alaska Public Media CEO Steve Lindbeck (D), who has so far raised over $500,000 for the campaign.  Rep. Young remains a solid favorite for re-election, however, projected to finish in the high 50s percentage range.

As expected, both Indiana Reps. Todd Rokita (R-IN-4) and Susan Brooks (R-IN-5) were reinstated as the Republican nominees in their respective congressional districts.  Both withdrew from their federal campaigns in order to seek the open Governorship, once incumbent Mike Pence (R) accepted Donald Trump's offer to join the national ticket as his Vice Presidential nominee.  When the Republican State Committee chose Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb to succeed Pence as the statewide party nominee, it became clear that Rokita and Brooks would return to their congressional campaigns.  The local congressional Republican committees officially took such action this week.  Both are rated as prohibitive favorites for re-election. 


August 10, 2016
Speaker Wins Primary and Clinton Leading in the Polls
by Jim Ellis 

President

The latest two national polls give Hillary Clinton varying leads over Donald Trump.  NBC News/Survey Monkey (8/1-7; 11,480 US registered voters) finds the former Secretary of State and First Lady's margin to be ten points, while the UPI/C-Voter (8/1-7; 960 US likely voters) survey sees a smaller five point spread. 

Evan McMullin, a former CIA operative and ex-chief policy director for the House Republican Conference, announced that he will attempt to qualify for the presidential ballot as an Independent.  Since the ballot access deadline has already passed in more than half the states, McMullin's name placement challenge is formidable.  It is unlikely that Mr. McMullin will greatly impact the national campaign.

Numbers being released in key battleground states find Clinton opening up a significant lead in Pennsylvania, while the two are virtually tied in Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, according to Susquehanna Polling & Research (PA), Quinnipiac University (FL, OH), and Public Policy Polling (NC).

The Clinton campaign is sending signals that it plans to compete in Georgia and Arizona due to current favorable polling data.  The states have been consistently strong for the GOP nominees in the 21st Century, and will likely be there for Trump in November.  Clinton need not expand the political map to win.  All she needs for victory is to carry 80% of the states that President Obama won twice.

Senate

Some of the poor Trump polling numbers are impacting certain Republican Senatorial candidates, but not uniformly so.

Several new polls find Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) either leading or trailing by one or two points.  Thus, he and challenger Katie McGinty (D) are virtually tied. 

A new Remington Research poll for the Missouri Scout political blog found Sen. Roy Blunt (R-MO) topping Secretary of State Jason Kander (D) by a 47-40% clip.

The news wasn't so good for first-term Illinois Sen. Mark Kirk (R).  His opponent, Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL-8), is brandishing an early August survey that posts her to 44-37% advantage.

In Georgia, where last week brought Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) a poll that projected him as being vulnerable to Democrat Jim Barksdale, the incumbent political ship now appears righted.  JMC Analytics finds the Senator holding a 39-30% lead, but with many voters remaining undecided.

Finally, yet another Nevada poll finds the two open seat Senate candidates again in close proximity.  As has been the case for months, Republican Congressman Joe Heck (R-Henderson) maintains a small edge over former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D).  In the latest CBS News/YouGov survey (8/2-5; 993 NV likely general election voters), Heck clings to a 38-35% advantage.

House

Speaker Paul Ryan scored a landslide 84-16% Republican primary win over Wisconsin businessman Paul Nehlen, despite the latter spending almost $1 million on his campaign.  Nehlen appeared to be scoring some political points against the new House Speaker and nine-term congressional incumbent, but fell way short of even denting Mr. Ryan's strong Republican political base.

Elsewhere in the Badger State, foreign policy analyst and former congressional aide Mike Gallagher easily secured the Republican nomination in the open Green Bay/Appleton district.  Mr. Gallagher will now face Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson in what could become a competitive general election campaign.

Republican voters in Minnesota's 2nd District affirmed the results of the state party convention by nominating radio talk show host Jason Lewis to succeed retiring Rep. John Kline (R-Burnsville).  Mr. Lewis now faces a formidable political foe in the person of healthcare executive Angie Craig.  Though a first-time candidate, Ms. Craig has already amassed $2.5 million for her effort, almost $1 million of which is self-contributed.

The long post-election mail ballot counting period has finally concluded in the state of Washington, and state Rep. Barry Walkinshaw (D) has successfully clinched the second general election ballot position for the open 7th District race.  Under Washington election law, all candidates are on the same primary ballot and the top two advance to the general election irrespective of political party preference.  Mr. Walkinshaw edged King County Councilman Joe McDermott (D) who had been leading him from the August 2nd vote until the final days of mail-ballot counting changed the final outcome.  The first place finisher, by a 20-point margin, is state Sen. Pramila Jayapal (D).  Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Seattle) is retiring after serving 14 terms in the House.

Governor

The open Vermont Governor's race is attracting attention.  This week, Democrats nominated former state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter to challenge Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R).  Though Vermont is heavily Democratic, most political observers believe this contest will yield a relatively tight election result.

The aforementioned Remington Research poll finds a virtual dead heat developing between newly nominated Chris Koster (D) and Eric Greitens (R).  The data finds Koster, the state's Attorney General, with a scant two-point lead over retired Navy SEAL Greitens, 45-43%.

In West Virginia, Democratic nominee Jim Justice, a billionaire billed as the state's richest man, enjoys a 47-37% margin over state Senate President Bill Cole (R) according to a new statewide poll.  The Global Strategy Group (8/1-3; 419 WV likely voters) conducted the survey for the Justice campaign.

Both Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) and West Virginia's Earl Ray Tomblin (D) are ineligible to seek third terms in their respective states.


August 3, 2016
Presidential Poll Bounces and Primary Roundup
by Jim Ellis 

President

The post-Democratic convention survey research is now in the public domain, and Hillary Clinton has re-assumed the presidential polling lead, as expected.  Her convention bounce projects to an average six percentage point lead over Donald Trump.  Six polls comprise the data from which the percentage was derived: Ipsos Reuters (7/25-29; 1,050 likely voters), Public Policy Polling (7/29-30; 1,276 likely voters), Morning Consult (7/29-30; 1,931 registered voters), NBC/Survey Monkey (7/25-31; 12,742 registered voters), CBS News (7/29-31; 1,131 registered voters), and CNN (7/29-31; 894 registered voters). 

The fact that Ms. Clinton's numbers are growing the further away from the convention we move is a good sign for her campaign.  For example, the poll that provides the former Secretary of State with her largest lead, CNN (52-43%, or nine percentage points), is the latest poll taken.

Numerous Republican office holders going public to condemn Trump's recent comments is having an effect upon the new Republican nominee's polling standing, helping drive his downturn, and Clinton is poised to take full advantage.

Senate

Senate primaries were held in Kansas, Missouri and Washington.  As expected, Sunflower State Sen. Jerry Moran posted a 77% victory in his Republican primary.  Incumbent Roy Blunt (R) and Secretary of State Jason Kander easily advanced to the general election from the Missouri primaries, each posting over 70% support. 

In Washington, the jungle primary format led to Sen. Patty Murray (D) and former Washington Republican Party chairman and ex-King County Councilman Chris Vance (R) moving to the general election.  Sen. Murray is a prohibitive favorite to win a fifth term in November.

House

Kansas Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Fowler/West Kansas), who had been at the center of controversy since coming to Congress in 2010 and being at odds with his own party leadership virtually since his first day in office, went down to a crushing Republican primary defeat this week at the hands of Dr. Roger Marshall (R), a Great Bend, KS obstetrician.  The final margin was 56-44%.

The campaign centered around Huelskamp being removed from the Agriculture Committee during his first term.  From an agriculture dominated district that contains the sprawling territory covering more than half of the state's land area, being stripped of his voice on the committee of most importance to his constituency led to the Congressman's downfall.  The fact that Dr. Marshall was his lone opponent also played poorly for Rep. Huelskamp, since the entire anti-incumbent vote had only one avenue to voice their opposition. 

Rep. Huelskamp becomes the third incumbent to lose re-nomination.  Earlier, Virginia Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake) lost his re-nomination campaign after a mid-decade redistricting court order forced him to choose to run in a completely new district.  Philadelphia Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-PA), facing multiple federal corruption charges, also fell in his bid to be nominated for another term.

In the two open Michigan districts, the Upper Peninsula's 1st District featured a tough three-way Republican primary where retired Marine Corps General Jack Bergman upset state Sen. Tom Casperson and former state Sen. Jason Allen by a five point margin.  Gen. Bergman will now face Michigan Democratic Party chairman Lon Johnson who easily defeated 2014 congressional nominee Jerry Cannon.  This will be a highly competitive general election.

Turning to the Macomb County district, businessman Paul Mitchell (R) taking advantage of his multi-million dollar spending spree won a close contest over state Sen. Phil Pavlov (R).  In 2014, Mitchell also expended copious amounts of his own money only to lose in the open 4th District.  Now moving across the state for this open race, he appears to have met with success two years later.  Mr. Mitchell now becomes the prohibitive favorite to replace Rep. Candice Miller (R), who is running for local office.

In Detroit, the Dean of the House, Rep. John Conyers (D), won re-nomination for a 27th term in office.  He was originally elected in 1964.  This week, he defeated Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey (D) 60-40%, to win yet again.  The 13th District is one of the safest Democratic seats in the country, so Mr. Conyers is assured of clinching another election in November.

All Washington House incumbents advanced with first place jungle primary finishes.  In the open 7th District, two Democrats, although it is still not clear who will finally finish in the second qualifying position, will meet in the general election to determine who replaces retiring Rep. Jim McDermott (D-Seattle).  Freshman Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) will apparently again face former NFL football player and conservative activist Clint Didier (R) in a double-Republican general election.  The 2014 contest ended in a 51-49% Newhouse victory.

Incumbents of both parties other than Huelskamp, in Michigan, Missouri, Washington, and Kansas were all either re-nominated in their respective primaries or advanced to the general election in jungle primary format.

Governor

The hotly contested open four-way Missouri Republican primary ended with Afghan/ Iraq War veteran Eric Greitens winning the gubernatorial nomination over businessman John Brunner, Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder, and former US Attorney and state House Speaker Catherine Hanaway.  Mr. Greitens will now face Attorney General Chris Koster (D) who easily won the Democratic primary.  The Republican race was expected to be closer.  Greitens held a ten point margin over his next closest competitor.  Gov. Jay Nixon (D) is ineligible to seek a third term.

In Washington, as expected, Gov. Jay Inslee (D) and Seattle Port Commissioner Bill Bryant (R) advanced to the general election.  Because of the state's mail-only voting system, the final percentage results won't be known for several days.  Despite Washington's staunchly Democratic voting history, this gubernatorial race could become seriously competitive.


July 27, 2016
Trump Leads in Post-Convention Polls and Indiana GOP finds Pence's Replacement
by Jim Ellis 

President

The Democratic National Convention officially nominated Hillary Clinton as its presidential candidate, the first woman to win a major party nomination in American history.

The week began with Donald Trump getting a clear bounce from his Republican convention last week. Trump took the lead in four national polls, and the culmination of eight surveys from eight pollsters (YouGov/Economist, CBS News, CNN, Morning Consult, University of Delaware, NBC/Survey Monkey, Raba Research, and Gravis Marketing) conducted between July 18-24 finds the two candidates in a virtual dead heat. The contenders' average advantage, with each individual leading in four studies, gives Ms. Clinton a cumulative margin of well under one percentage point.

Looking at the five polls that used more than 1,000 respondents, Trump would lead by an average of slightly under one point.

Senate

Two new surveys were just released in the critical Senate states of New Hampshire and Nevada.

The Inside Source firm, in conjunction with the New Hampshire Journal, finds Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R), after trailing in polls released last week, jumping back to what might be her largest lead of the cycle: 49-41% over Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan.

In Nevada, Rasmussen Reports finds Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) topping former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D), 46-37%. Rep. Heck has held a consistent polling lead for the bulk of the open seat campaign. Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D) is retiring. The Republicans' converting this state is a major part of their national strategy to retain the majority.

Several Senate primaries will be held in August. Voters in Missouri, Washington, Connecticut, Kansas, Wisconsin, Alaska, Hawaii, Arizona, and Florida are on the coming schedule.

House

The Georgia run-off election was held this week, and West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson, a local dentist, won the Republican secondary election and becomes the prohibitive favorite to take the open seat in November.

Ferguson defeated state Sen. Mike Crane (R), 54-46%.The two were separated by only 93 votes in the May 24th primary, with Crane leading. Six-term Rep. Lynn Westmoreland (R-Grantville) is retiring.

As a result of the Indiana gubernatorial vacancy created with Gov. Mike Pence (R) being selected as Donald Trump's running mate, Reps. Susan Brooks (R-Carmel) and Todd Rokita (R-Clermont) withdrew from their congressional races in order to be considered as a successor to Gov. Mike Pence at the gubernatorial level.

Neither House member was successful, so the respective congressional district committees could, and are expected to, reinstate them both as US House nominees. Both Reps. Brooks and Rokita immediately declared for the House once they failed in the Governor's race.

House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI-1) took to the airwaves to begin advertising in his August 9th primary campaign. Businessman Paul Nehlen (R) is scoring major points against Ryan in his primary challenge, hitting him hard on immigration, trade and jobs. The fact that Speaker Ryan is responding and spending money in what should be an easy nomination contest suggests this will be a closer race than originally expected. Mr. Ryan is still a heavy favorite to win, but it's far less likely that he will rack up a big percentage.

Governor

The 22 members of the Indiana Republican Party's State Committee met earlier in the week and voted to replace Gov. Mike Pence on the November ballot. Under Indiana election law, a person may not enter more than one race, so Pence's presence as the GOP Vice Presidential candidate prohibits him from simultaneously seeking re-election as Governor.

The State Committee, comprised of the state Republican Party officers and the chair and vice chair of all nine congressional district committees selected appointed Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb as their gubernatorial nominee. Holcomb, a former staff aide to Sen. Dan Coats (R), entered the open Senate race in 2015 but fared poorly. When Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann (R) resigned to accept another position, Holcomb asked for consideration as Lt. Governor, and won Gov. Pence's appointment. It is from this base that he will now challenge former state House Speaker John Gregg (D) in the 2016 Governor's race.

A Republican Tarrance poll found Gregg leading Holcomb 42-34% at the beginning of this new race, giving the Democrats a much stronger chance of converting this contest for their party.


July 20, 2016
Never Trump Fails and Hoosier Musical Chairs
by Jim Ellis 

President

The Republican National Convention is dominating the national political news, and Donald Trump successfully overcame his last obstacle on the way to winning the GOP nomination.  The Republican "Never Trump" forces, as promised, attempted to remove the bound-vote requirement for delegates in all states.  By previous Republican National Convention rule, all but seven delegations require their members to vote in proportion to the state Republican vote on the first ballot.  Some states require compliance on the second and third ballots, as well.

The Convention Rules Committee dispensed with the motion on a series of votes, and the Never Trump forces reached just 20% support only one time.  After their defeat before the rules panel, the insurgent delegates attempted to change the rule on the floor of the convention, but were roundly defeated on a voice vote.  This cleared the way for Mr. Trump's formal nomination on Tuesday night.

Hillary Clinton has already launched a major television ad wave, zeroing in on her opponent, Mr. Trump. She has also scheduled her Vice Presidential announcement for Friday.

Senate

The first new Indiana Senate race poll finds former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) jumping out to a big lead over Rep. Todd Young (R-Bloomington).  Young was a virtual lock to win the seat until former Rep. Baron Hill (D-Bloomington) withdrew from the statewide contest and yielded to Mr. Bayh under a deal the state Democratic Party leadership cemented.  The new Garin Hart Yang Research poll, a Democratic firm polling on behalf of the party and the fledgling Bayh campaign, finds their man leading Rep. Young by a substantial 54-33% split.  The Democrats taking this seat from the Republican column could well lead to them re-taking the Senate majority.

New polls were released as part of the CBS/YouGov battleground panel back polling.  A panel back survey is one where previous respondents are re-interviewed at a later point in time after answering earlier surveys.  According to the Senate ballot tests in Iowa and Ohio, the results are consistent with other recent polls of these contests. 

The Iowa result finds Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) topping former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge (D), 45-37%.  In Ohio, a small margin comes between Sen. Rob Portman (R) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (D).  Such has been the case for months. The CBS/YouGov results find Portman holding a slight 41-40% edge.

House

The week's major House news is a by-product from Indiana Gov. Mike Pence being selected as Donald Trump's Vice Presidential running mate.  With Pence having to withdraw from the Governor's race on the final day before the ballot became locked under state election law, the Indiana Republican Party's State Committee, a 22-member body with representatives from each congressional district, will choose the new nominee. 

Reps. Todd Rokita (R-Clermont; 4th District) and Susan Brooks (R-Carmel; 5th District) withdrew from their respective congressional races to ask the State Committee for consideration as Governor Pence's replacement for the party nomination.  If neither Rokita nor Brooks are chosen, it is likely their respective Republican congressional district committees will reinstate them as the party nominee for the office each currently holds. 

Governor

Also filing for the open Indiana gubernatorial nomination is Lt. Governor and former Indiana Republican Party chairman Eric Holcomb, in addition to the aforementioned Reps. Rokita and Brooks.  Though the committee may take as long as 30 days to hold a replacement vote, the state party leadership has already announced that July 26th will be the official day they vote for Governor.


July 13, 2016
Clinton Numbers post-FBI Decision, Evan Bayh's Indiana Return, and Poll Data on FL, NV, NY, OR, & TX Races
by Jim Ellis 

President

Some of the new post-FBI decision polling is making its way into the public domain, and the data yields predictable results.

Gone are the Hillary Clinton leads of last week that suggested the former Secretary of State was moving into low double-digit leads over Donald Trump.

This week, two national pollsters: Morning Consult, which continually polls the presidential race in a tracking format, and NBC/Survey Monkey that does likewise, released their presidential conclusions.

The Morning Consult data, determined over the July 8-10 period, finds Ms. Clinton's national lead dropping to a single point, 42-41%.  NBC/Survey Monkey, which began the sampling period on July 4th (also ending 7/10), projects the presumptive Democratic candidate's advantage dropping to 47-44%.  Morning Consult interviewed 2,001 people via Internet, while Survey Monkey's online poll tabulated responses from just under 8,000 individuals.

Had Libertarian Gary Johnson been included, the results would likely have been a virtual tie, or shown Mr. Trump forging into a slight lead.  The race tightens in Trump's favor every time Johnson is included.

Two states reported new data.  Harper Polling finds Ms. Clinton up 45-38% in important Colorado, with 14% going to "other" candidates.  New Monmouth University research finds Donald Trump taking the lead in swing Iowa, with a 44-42% margin over Ms. Clinton with Mr. Johnson polling 6%, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein attracting only 1 percent.

Senate

The week's surprise finds former Sen. Evan Bayh (D) returning to the political arena.  Announcing just days before the state's July 15th ballot finalization deadline and 24 hours after former Rep. Baron Hill (D-Bloomington) withdrew from the statewide contest clearly indicates an orchestrated Democratic Party agreement.  Mr. Hill had won the Democratic primary on May 3rd but was performing poorly on the fundraising and campaign circuits against Republican Rep. Todd Young (R-Bloomington).

Mr. Bayh possessed over $9 million in his campaign account when he left office in 2010, which can be used in this current race.  The largess will give the former Senator and Governor a financial edge, but he hasn't been on the ballot since 2004 and not participated in a competitive campaign in almost 30 years.  Mr. Bayh was elected Governor in 1988, and re-elected in 1992.  Despite the Indiana Senate seat being open in 1998, Bayh won with little opposition then and was easily re-elected six years later.  He retired in 2010.

The move puts Indiana into a competitive category, instead of being a sure Republican hold.  Sen. Dan Coats (R) is retiring, thus leaving the seat open.

Two key Senate polls were released early in the week.  JMC Analytics released a survey of Florida voters, and though skewed several points in the Republicans' favor it reports good news for Sen. Marco Rubio (R).  The ballot test finds him leading Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter), 40-33%.  He maintains a similar 41-33% margin if Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Orlando) were to become his Democratic challenger.  The Florida primary is August 30th.

In Nevada, Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) continues to maintain a small lead over Democratic former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) in the battle to replace retiring Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D).  The Monmouth University poll finds Heck leading Masto 42-40%, even when the same data portends a 45-41% Hillary Clinton edge in the presidential contest.

House

Polls were released in two districts where Republican incumbents are highly vulnerable.  Harper Polling finds Nevada freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-NV-4) holding a bare 38-36% edge over state Sen. Ruben Kihuen (D).  The 4th District is heavily Democratic and Hardy was an upset winner in 2014.

In the Texas swing district that stretches all the way from San Antonio to El Paso, freshman Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX-23) finds himself trailing former Rep. Pete Gallego (D), according to a new Anzalone Liszt Grove Research poll for the latter's campaign.  The internal data gives Gallego a 45-38% advantage.

The New York congressional race that produced a 29-vote spread on Election Night is now officially declared.  Local town Supervisor Anna Throne-Holst (D) actually increased her lead once absentee ballots were recorded, and won a 273-vote victory over businessman Dave Calone.  The new nominee wins the right to challenge freshman Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-Shirley/Smithtown) in Long Island's easternmost district.

Governor

A new Oregon iCitizen poll finds interim Gov. Kate Brown (D) holding a smaller-than-expected lead over former Oregon Medical Association president Bud Pierce (R).  The data finds Ms. Brown up 42-35%, suggesting a potentially competitive race.  Ms. Brown, who ascended to the Governorship from the Secretary of State position when incumbent John Kitzhaber (D) resigned under pressure, must run in a special election to serve the balance of the current term. 


July 6, 2016
A Look at the Presidential, Key U.S. Senate, and the NC Governor Races
by Jim Ellis 

President

In the ten latest national polls conducted from June 21-29, Hillary Clinton posts an average 5.7 point lead over Donald Trump.  Two of the most recent surveys, however, tell wildly different stories.  The new Ipsos/Reuters data gives Clinton a much larger 42-32% lead with 14% in the "neither/other" category.  Conversely, Rasmussen Reports finds Trump forging into a national lead, 43-39% with 12% designated as "other".  At this point in the election cycle the Democratic candidate is invariably ahead, so it is no surprise that Ms. Clinton enjoys a national advantage.  As the campaign matures, the Republican generally closes.

State polling is also being conducted.  Both Public Policy Polling and Evolving Strategies (for the Ballotpedia website) surveyed the key states.  PPP found closer numbers across the board than did ES.  The former finds Trump climbing to within four points of Clinton in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New Hampshire; two points in Iowa; and leading by four in Arizona.  The latter gives Clinton substantial margins in the places where both polled, including a whopping 14 point spread in Pennsylvania.  

Polls conducted in the coming days may show movement for Trump in reaction to the FBI recommendation about the Hillary Clinton investigation and the reaction surrounding that decision.

In summary, to reiterate what each candidate must do to win, Clinton needs to only carry 80% of the states President Obama won twice.  She could give up Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, and either Iowa or Nevada and still win the national election.  On the other hand, Trump could win with just a three-state switch from the 2012 Obama map: Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.  

Senate

The Democracy Corps, in conjunction with the Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund, contracted Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for a major presidential survey that also touched seven key Senate campaign states.  Stan Greenberg, one of the GQR principals, is also a Democracy Corps founder.  

Using an unusual sampling technique, 2,100 likely general election voters were queried in the seven states with Senate races, divided equally into 300-person segments.  The states are: Arizona, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  The equal divisions, therefore, place New Hampshire, a state with just over one million people on an equivalent footing, for example, with Pennsylvania, which has slightly less than 13 million inhabitants.  Therefore, the error factor in the bigger states will be exponentially higher than in those with small populations.

That being said, the GQR data produced some surprising numbers for both parties.  Concerning the tested Senate campaigns, the data seemed consistent with other previous and recent polling in:

Arizona:                   Sen. John McCain (R)               44%

                                   Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D)           42%

Nevada:                   Rep. Joe Heck (R)                     46%

                                   Catherine Cortez Masto (D)    41%

New Hampshire:   Gov. Maggie Hassan (D)         47%

                                  Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R)                 46%

In the remaining four states, GQR appears out of step with their fellow pollsters.  In each case, the produced data finds the ballot test inconsistent with conclusions from other survey research firms that have routinely surveyed these states.  Interestingly, the changing results, or potential skew factors, do not favor one particular political party over the other.     

North Carolina:   Deborah Ross (D)                  38%

                               Sen. Richard Burr (R)             36%

Ohio:                     Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland (D)     43%

                               Sen. Rob Portman (R)            40%

Pennsylvania:    Sen. Pat Toomey (R)              46%

                              Katie McGinty (D)                     38%

Wisconsin:         Ex-Sen. Russ Feingold (D)    46%

                              Sen. Ron Johnson (R)            45%

In North Carolina, no other pollster has found former state Rep. Ross holding any sized lead over Sen. Burr.  In comparison, a new Civitas Institute survey (6/23-25; 600 NC registered voters) sees the race heading in a complete opposite direction.  Civitas has Sen. Burr ahead 44-34%.

While former Gov. Strickland has so far performed well against Ohio's Sen. Portman, in the most recent surveys other than this latest GQR entry, Portman has either tied Strickland or forged slightly ahead.

Most polls also find the Pennsylvania Senate race to be very tight.  But, GQR, along with one other poll (Quinnipiac University's June Q-Poll), surprisingly projects Sen. Toomey with a substantial lead.

Finally, in Wisconsin, while virtually all recent polls suggest that ex-Sen. Feingold is beginning to put distance between himself and incumbent Johnson, in some cases even to margins in the double-digit range, the GQR data very surprisingly concludes that this is a one-point race.    

Governor

The aforementioned Civitas Institute data also tested the North Carolina gubernatorial campaign.  Their results suggest that Gov. Pat McCrory (R) has completely rebounded from the Charlotte trans-gender bathroom issue.  The prevailing margin has returned to the spread before the controversy broke, with the late data now finding McCrory back out in front, 43-38% over four-term Attorney General Roy Cooper (D).


June 29, 2016
Brexit, Signs of a Sanders Concession, Rubio Announced, Congressional Nominees, Utah Governor, and more
by Jim Ellis

President

The victory for Brexit forces in the United Kingdom is a boost to Donald Trump's campaign, at least according to the GOP's presumptive nominee.  Mr. Trump's response statement proclaimed that, in November, the American people, too, will have "the chance to re-declare their independence."

Though the media portrays the Trump presidential effort as reeling, the polling numbers aren't detecting the desperate tones emanating from those stories or the trepidations of so many Republican Party leaders.  Despite firing campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, which may be more related to Trump's poor financial standing (less than $1.3 million on hand) and less to his national position, Donald Trump is still going toe-to-toe with Hillary Clinton.  An average of the last ten national polls suggests a Clinton lead of only 6.5 points, historically standard for a Democrat-Republican presidential contest at this point in the election cycle.

Quinnipiac University released their regular Q-Polls in three critical swing states this week.  While Ms. Clinton now claims a 42-36-7% lead over Trump and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, respectively, in all-important Florida, the Republican pulls to within two points in Ohio, and three in Pennsylvania.  Both NBC (with the Wall Street Journal) and CBS released polls showing Ms. Clinton holding only a one-point lead over Trump when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is included.  The Johnson-Weld Libertarian ticket is expected to gain 50-state ballot placement.

A last-ditch move among delegates in an effort to deny Trump the nomination is reportedly gaining steam.  But, such an insurrection would have to convince the convention Rules Committee members to virtually trash the Republican primary voters' choice, along with state laws and planks that bind delegate voting.  If the Rules Committee somehow adopted such a change, then the entire convention would have to approve the radical juxtaposition.  These are two major hills to climb, and the chances of the Never Trump movement actually succeeding are minimal.

In the meantime, Sen. Bernie Sanders is finally signaling concession to Hillary Clinton.  While he may use the national convention to secure issue concessions, he will not be any further impediment to her being officially nominated.

Senate

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced that he will reverse course and seek re-election.  New polling gives Rubio a strong look in the Republican primary, particularly with the principle contenders dropping out to make way for him, but the general election promises to be a hard fought.  The new Quinnipiac data, however, posts him to his strongest lead, 47-40%, over Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter). 

New polling, also from Quinnipiac University, gives Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) a 49-40% advantage over Democrat Katie McGinty.  They see Ohio Sen. Rob Portman (R) and former Gov. Ted Strickland (D) tied at 42%, while Public Policy Polling finds Tar Heel State Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) still clinging to a small three-point edge (40-37%) over former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D). 

House

Colorado, New York, Oklahoma, and Utah chose congressional nominees on Tuesday, and all incumbents facing challenges successfully won re-nomination.  

Some of the more interesting general election pairings will feature Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Aurora) defending his lean Democratic district against state Senate Minority Leader Morgan Carroll (D), and the New York open 3rd District now between state Sen. Jack Martins (R) and former Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi (D), along with Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney (R) opposing Broome County legislator Kim Myers (D) in the central part of the state.  In Utah, a competitive re-match campaign is now officially underway between freshman Rep. Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs) and attorney Doug Owens (D), son of the late former US Rep. Wayne Owens (D-Salt Lake City).  The 2014 campaign ended in a 51-46% Love win.

Back in New York, three-time congressional candidate Adriano Espaillat, a NY state Senator, will now succeed retiring Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-Harlem).  Espaillat won a crowded Democratic primary and now will become the first non-African American to hold this district since the end of World War II.  The Bronx-anchored 13th District is one of the safest Democratic seats in the nation.

Two moderately competitive Oklahoma Republican primary challenges unsurprisingly went the incumbents' way.  Despite spending more than $700,000 on his campaign to upset Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-Tulsa), oil executive Tom Atkinson (R) only secured 16% of the vote.  In a tighter race, Rep. Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville/ Muskogee) claimed a 63-37% victory over former Army Ranger Jarrin Jackson (R).  All five Oklahoma congressional incumbents will easily claim another term in November.

Governor

Utah Gov. Gary Herbert won an easy 72-28% Republican primary victory over Overstock, Inc. CEO Jonathan Johnson.  The Governor is now a sure bet to win a second full term in November.  

Though four states held primaries early this week, only Utah had a Governor's race on the ballot.


June 22, 2016
BIPAC Election Insights - Trump's Numbers, Rubio Re-election, Rep. Chaka Fattah Convicted, and more
by Jim Ellis 

President

The media portrays the Donald Trump presidential campaign as reeling, but the polling numbers aren't detecting the desperate tones emanating from those stories or the trepidations of so many Republican Party leaders.  Despite firing campaign manager Corey Lewandowski, which may be more related to Trump's poor financial standing (less than $1.3 million on hand) and less to his national position, Donald Trump is still going toe-to-toe with Hillary Clinton.

Quinnipiac University released their regular Q-Polls in three critical swing states this week.  While Ms. Clinton now claims a 42-36-7% lead over Trump and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson, respectively, in all-important Florida, the Republican pulls to within two points in Ohio, and three in Pennsylvania.  Earlier in June, Public Policy Polling, in a poll that skews four points Democratic, actually found Trump leading in the Sunshine State by a slight 42-41% margin.  Therefore, the Republican's ability to soon return to even footing in Florida appears good.

A move among delegates to attempt a last ditch effort to deny Trump the nomination is reportedly gaining steam.  But, such an insurrection would have to convince the convention rules committee members to open the convention, and thus virtually trash the Republican primary voters' support expressions, and state laws and planks that bind delegate voting.  If the Rules Committee somehow adopted such a change, then the entire convention would have to vote to approve.  These are two very high hills to climb, and the chances of this actually occurring are very minimal.

Senate

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) continues to send signals that he is reversing his decision not to seek re-election.  He will have to decide for sure by the end of this week because Florida candidate filing closes Friday afternoon, June 24th.  Rubio's polling looks strong in the Republican primary, particularly with the principle contenders dropping out to make way for him, but the general election promises to be a hard fought, toss-up campaign most likely against Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter).

A new Louisiana Senate poll was released this week, conducted for Democratic candidate Caroline Fayard, a former White House aide.  The data (GBA Strategies; released 6/15; 500 LA registered voters), like all previous polls have found, see state Treasurer John Kennedy (R) leading the pack with 30% of the vote for the jungle primary that will be conducted concurrently with the November general election.  If no one receives an absolute majority, then a December run-off between the top two finishers will occur on the 10th of that month.  For an open statewide race that has so far drawn 14 candidates, a post-election run-off appears inevitable.  

In second place was Democratic Public Service Commissioner and former gubernatorial candidate Foster Campbell (D) with 15%, followed closely by Fayard's 14 percent.  Rep. Charles Boustany (R-Lafayette) attracts 11% while fellow GOP Rep. John Fleming (R-Minden/Shreveport) commands 9 percent.  The surprising support number is Fayard's, the poll sponsor.  No other survey has projected her in that strong of a position.

House

In an unsurprising court verdict, Rep. Chaka Fattah (D-Philadelphia) was convicted on all 29 federal corruption charges on Tuesday, meaning he will soon depart Congress.  Fattah will be sentenced at another time in the future, but irrespective of when he decides, or is forced, to resign he will be unable to vote.  House rules prohibit members convicted of crimes to vote on legislation should they remain in office.

State Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) defeated Fattah in the April Democratic primary, so the Congressman's 22-year federal political career will end at the beginning of next year no matter what is decided for the remainder of 2016.  

The Rubio reversal will affect at least two House seats.  Rep. David Jolly (R-Pinellas County), in anticipation of the Senator seeking re-election, has already dropped his own Senatorial bid and will file for re-election to his re-drawn House seat.  There, he will face party switching former Gov. Charlie Crist (D) in the general election.  Early polling suggests a toss-up campaign even though the new 13th has been drawn to elect a Democrat.

On the northern Atlantic coast of Florida, Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Daytona) will have to quickly decide whether or not to continue his Senate campaign, attempt to go back to the House, or do nothing in 2016.  With six Republicans already running for the open 6th District seat, it may be difficult for DeSantis to return right as filing closes.  Rumors suggest he may sit out this election and then declare for what will be an open Florida Attorney General's contest in 2018.

The 9th District recount in the close contest between North Carolina Rep. Bob Pittenger (R-Charlotte) and pastor Mark Harris has ended.  Pittenger went into the run-off with a 135 vote lead.  Harris was only able to make up two votes, hence he ended the process and Mr. Pittenger finally becomes the official nominee.  He now faces businessman Christian Cano (D), but even in a politically weakened state Pittenger will easily have the wherewithal to defeat Cano.


June 15, 2016
Clinton Wins DC Dem Primary, Upsets in Virginia and North Dakota, and More Election Analysis
by Jim Ellis

President

The presidential political primary season ended with the District of Columbia Democratic primary where presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton captured 79% of the vote and has, for all intents and purposes, finally ended Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT) campaign hopes.  She now has enough in the way of pledged votes and Super Delegates to unquestionably exceed the 2,383 votes necessary to win the presidential nomination.

Three new general election polls were just released from Morning Consult, NBC/Survey Monkey, and Bloomberg Politics.  All show Ms. Clinton building a substantial lead, mostly detecting fallout over Donald Trump's disparaging comments about the judge hearing his Trump University lawsuit.  The three polls project Clinton to national leads of five, seven, and twelve points, respectively.  The final poll in the series, from Bloomberg, may be an anomaly because no other publicly released data find such a large spread between the two candidates.

Now both candidates prepare for their respective political conventions and becoming the official party nominee.  Republicans begin the convention process in Cleveland over the July 18-21 period with Democrats following from Philadelphia in the succeeding week.

Senate

The Nevada primary produced two official US Senate nominees, and the result is no surprise.  Democrats nominated former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto who captured 81% against four minor Democratic candidates.  Republican Rep. Joe Heck (R-Henderson) easily captured his party's nomination with 65% against former Senate nominee Sharron Angle and eight more GOP candidates.  We can expect a hard fought general election campaign to emerge here, in a state that may well determine which party will control the Senate in the next Congress.  Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is retiring.

A new early June Public Policy Polling survey finds Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey (R) holding a small 41-38% lead over Democratic nominee Katie McGinty.  This race expects to be close all the way to Election Day and will become one of the focal points of both the Democrats and Republicans driving for capture the Senate majority.  The same poll also finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump virtually tied at 44%, giving further credence to the closeness of the Senate race.

House

A major upset occurred in the Virginia House primaries.  Eight-term Rep. Randy Forbes (R-Chesapeake) lost his bid for re-nomination in the 2nd District after the mid-decade court-ordered redistricting procedure turned his 4th District into a decidedly Democratic district.  Trying to extend his congressional career, Forbes hopped into the adjacent open Virginia Beach anchored 2nd District but could not overcome local Delegate Scott Taylor (R) who posted a 53-41% victory in a domain where the veteran Congressman had not previously represented anyone.  

Mr. Forbes becomes the second incumbent to lose in the special redistricting states, after courts demanded new congressional boundaries be constructed in parts of Virginia and North Carolina.  Last week, Rep. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) lost her primary battle to fellow Rep. George Holding (R-Raleigh) in the latter state.

In Nevada, open 3rd District voters gave former congressional and statewide nominee Danny Tarkanian an eight point win over party establishment favorite Michael Roberson, the state Senate Majority Leader.  Democrats turned to their recruited candidate, software developer Jacky Rosen who recorded a landslide 61% victory over five Democratic candidates.  The field included attorney Jesse Sbaih, who doubled Rosen's campaign expenditures.  The 3rd District is the marginal seat Rep. Joe Heck is vacating to run statewide.  The general election will be rated as a toss-up, though Tarkanian's poor past general election performances may give Rosen and the Democrats the inside track to victory.

In the 4th District, establishment-backed state Senator Ruben Kihuen won the Democratic nomination over seven other candidates, one of which, former state Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, he trailed substantially in polling.  Kihuen will now face freshman Rep. Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite) in a district that will be prone to vote Democratic in a presidential election year.  This is a strong Democratic conversion opportunity.

In South Carolina, Representative and former Governor Mark Sanford (R-Charleston) won his re-nomination race but scored only a 56-44% victory over state Rep. Jenny Horne.  The Congressman will have little trouble winning another term in the safe Republican House seat, however.   

Governor

The second major June 14th primary upset came in the North Dakota Governor's race.  There, businessman Doug Burgum easily overcame the official Republican-endorsed candidate, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem.  Normally, North Dakota candidates do not force a primary after losing the state convention, but Burgum pursued a statewide vote and reaped the benefits.  Mr. Burgum now becomes a heavy general election favorite against state Rep. Marvin Nelson (D).


June 8, 2016

Tuesday's Primary Results Review and Forecast
by Jim Ellis 

President

Now that the primary process is complete, we can officially declare Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the respective Democratic and Republican presidential nominees.

The battle wrapped up in six states, with Trump scoring an average of 74% of the vote in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.  Ms. Clinton lost the North Dakota Caucus to Sen. Bernie Sanders, along with the state of Montana.  Despite big wins in New Jersey, and an unexpected one in California, Ms. Clinton only averaged 55% of the vote, almost 20 points worse than Trump simultaneously scored among Republicans.

We now begin the pre-convention period, and it is here where we could possibly see further action from Sen. Sanders.  It is likely now, however, that he will end the campaign and come together with Ms. Clinton.  Her strong California performance shattered what one of his key arguments would have been for continuing: that she couldn't even win decisively in the bedrock Democratic states.

Senate

A surprise candidate entered the Alaska Republican primary.  Former Anchorage Mayor Dan Sullivan will now challenge Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the August 16th Republican primary.  Six years ago, Murkowski was denied re-nomination and forced to win re-election as a write-in Independent candidate.  The ex-Mayor is a more substantial opponent than local judge Joe Miller (R), who defeated her in 2010, so this could become a real race.  A wild card factor presents itself because Mr. Sullivan has the same name as the state's freshman US Senator...Dan Sullivan (R), which will create obvious voter confusion.

California Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim) will advance to the general election on June 7th, thus shutting out Republicans from further competition.  Ms. Harris' 40% projected finish was better than expected.  Rep. Sanchez placed second from the field of 34 candidates, but with only 16% of the vote.

Another round of polling indicates the North Carolina race is again going to be close in November.  Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling surveys their home state every month and now finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) again holding a tepid 39-36% edge over former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D).  Democrats were originally not happy with their candidate recruitment performance here, but Ms. Ross appears to be a formidable contender.  The Libertarian candidate, Sean Haugh, receives eight percent in the latest PPP study.

House

Congressional primary elections were held in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, and South Dakota.  The most interesting race proved to be the Republican incumbent pairing between North Carolina Reps. Renee Ellmers (R-Dunn) and George Holding (R-Raleigh).  Both were cast into the same district as a by-product of the court-ordered redistricting procedure. 

The result proved a landslide for Rep. Holding, as he captured 53% of the vote as compared to Rep. Ellmers' 24%.  In fact, Ellmers barely edged Tea Party activist and former US Senate candidate Greg Brannon who registered 23% support.  Rep. Holding now becomes the prohibitive favorite in the general election.

Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), who had a close call in the 2014 Republican primary, crushed his two opponents on June 7th, including George W. Bush Administration official Taylor Griffin who returned for a re-match.  Mr. Jones registered 65% of the vote this week.  Griffin actually finished in third place.  Rep. Jones should be unimpeded in November for a twelfth term in office.

Rep. Alma Adams (D-NC), who had her Greensboro political base removed from the district in the court-ordered re-draw, still won a big victory in the new Charlotte-based district.  She scored 42% of the vote against a former state Senator, two sitting state Representatives, and three others.  The Congresswoman will head to an easy November victory.

In North Carolina's new open 13th District, agriculture businessman and gun range owner Ted Budd won the Republican nomination against 16 opponents.  He will face former Guilford County Commissioner Bruce Davis (D) in the general election.  The seat trends Republican.

All of the California incumbents seeking re-election advanced to the general election.  Rep. Mike Honda (D-San Jose) will again face fellow Democrat Ro Khanna, a former Obama Administration official, in the general election.  The two fought to a 52-48% Honda victory in 2014, in what proved to be a highly expensive race. 

Jimmy Panetta (D-Monterey), son of former US Defense Secretary, CIA Director, and local Congressman Leon Panetta (D), easily placed first in the primary qualifying election.  He will claim the open coastal district in November. 

Turning to Iowa, Rep. Steve King (R) easily defeated state Senate Assistant Majority Leader Rick Bertrand (65-35%).  King's former opponent, Iraq War veteran Jim Mowrer (D), has switched venues and won the 3rd District nomination.  He will now face freshman Rep. David Young (R-Van Meter/Des Moines) in the general election. 

The OH-8 special election, to fill the nation's lone open congressional district, was also filled Tuesday.  Businessman Warren Davidson (R) captured 77% of the vote and will immediately replace resigned House Speaker John Boehner (R).  Davidson will serve the balance of the current term and has already won the regular election nomination.  The House now returns to the 247R-188D partisan division that began the 114th Congress.

Governor

In the only gubernatorial action from the June 7th primary, Republican businessman Greg Gianforte, as expected, easily won the Montana GOP primary with 76% of the vote.  He will now face Gov. Steve Bullock (D), as the latter campaigns for a second term.  The Governor begins the general election cycle as a decided favorite.


June 1, 2016
The Libertarian Ticket Decided; CA, FL, & NC Senate Updates; and House/Governor Race News
by Jim Ellis 

President

The Libertarian Party held its nominating convention over the Memorial Day weekend and, for the second time, chose former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson as their presidential nominee.  Mr. Johnson pulled 1% of the national vote in 2012.  He won the nomination on the second ballot, after failing to garner an absolute majority by just five delegate votes.  

Ex-Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld, Mr. Johnson's choice for his running mate, was nominated as the Libertarian Vice Presidential candidate but with only 50.3% on the second ballot.  Having two former Governors lead the Libertarians gives the party its most accomplished ticket.  The organization has nominated a presidential candidate in every election since 1972, inclusive.  

New presidential polls were released during the week.  Only two were national in scope: NBC/Survey Monkey (5/23-29; 12,969 national respondents) finds Hillary Clinton holding a scant 47-45% lead over Donald Trump.  Rasmussen Reports (5/23-24; 1,000 national registered voters) projects an even closer race, 40-39%, in favor of the former Secretary of State and First Lady.

The individual state polling is more interesting.  In critical New Hampshire, the Boston Herald/Franklin Pierce University survey finds the two candidates tied at 44% apiece.  

Two surprising polls, from Monmouth University (NJ) and Clout Research (OR), find Donald Trump doing much better than an average Republican candidate.  In New Jersey, Monmouth finds Ms. Clinton's lead to only be 38-34%.  Clout sees Trump actually leading in Oregon, 44-42%.  On the other hand, Public Opinion Strategies finds Ms. Clinton performing better than expected in Wisconsin.  She leads Mr. Trump 43-31% in their latest poll released May 27th.

Senate

Speculation is rising that Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) will reverse course and declare for re-election.  For his part, the Senator still says such a move would be "unlikely".  He is receiving intense pressure to run from the party leadership inside the Senate, specifically Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Majority Whip John Cornyn (R-TX).  The two, and many other national and state Republican Party leaders, are concerned with the FL GOP candidate development and fear a general election loss to Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter).  The Florida candidate filing deadline is June 24th.

Two new California Senate polls were released.  Survey USA, polling for KABC-TV in Los Angeles, and the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) confirmed what all previous polls project: that Attorney General Kamala Harris (D) and Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D-Anaheim) will advance to the general election on June 7th, thus shutting out Republicans from further competition.  

No GOP candidate breaks double-digits in either poll.  Ms. Harris appears set to clinch the first general election position with 31% according to S-USA and 27% from PPIC, while Rep. Sanchez scores 22% and 19% preference, respectively.

Another round of polling indicates the North Carolina race is again going to be close in November.  Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling surveys their home state every month and now finds Sen. Richard Burr (R) again holding a tepid 39-36% edge over former state Rep. Deborah Ross (D).  Democrats were originally not happy with their candidate recruitment performance here, but Ms. Ross appears to be a formidable contender.  The Libertarian candidate, Sean Haugh, receives eight percent in the latest PPP study.

House

In Hawaii, former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-Honolulu) is sending signals that she is interested in seeking her old job.  Ms. Hanabusa left the House after two terms to unsuccessfully run for Senate.  Freshman Rep. Mark Takai's (D-Aiea) announcement last week that he can no longer seek re-election because his pancreatic cancer disease is spreading led to speculation that a long list of Democrats would compete for the seat.  Should Ms. Hanabusa enter, most, if not all of the others, say they will back away.  Republican former Rep. Charles Djou has not ruled out a fourth run for the seat.

Elsewhere, former Florida congressional candidate and current Sanibel Island City Councilman Chauncey Goss previously announced that he will run for the newly open Ft. Myers/Cape Coral seat.  Mr. Goss is the son of former US Representative and CIA Director J. Porter Goss (R).  During the past week, former Vatican City Ambassador Patrick Rooney (R) also said he will enter the race.  Ex-state Rep. Paige Kreegel, who was a candidate in the 2014 special congressional election that elected Clawson, said he will "probably run" now that the seat has again come open.

Governor

The Civitas Institute released a new poll on the North Carolina Governor's race and finds a rebound from incumbent Pat McCrory (R).  The latest figures give McCrory a 48-41% lead, a considerable improvement from a set of previous polls that recently found Attorney General Roy Cooper (D) earning a low single-digit edge.

Though this will be a 2018 campaign, Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine (R), who served two terms as a US Senator before being defeated in 2006, says he will be a candidate in the state's next gubernatorial election.  Incumbent John Kasich (R) will be ineligible to seek a third term.


May 25, 2016
Washington State Results, Isakson Primary Victory, and other Senate/House News
by Jim Ellis 
 
President

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton won their respective Washington State primaries, though the Democratic contest did not determine delegate apportionment.

Trump carried the Washington primary with 76% of the vote, and captured 38 of the state's 44 delegates according to the apportionment formula.  The result means he will officially clinch the nomination once the first of the June 7 state electorates, New Jersey with its 51 winner-take-all delegates, casts their ballots.

Ms. Clinton recorded a 54% victory over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I/D-VT), but the Evergreen State delegates were previously apportioned based upon the March 26th caucus vote.  Ms. Clinton will also clinch her nomination on June 7th, when five states, including California, vote.

Four new national polls from ABC/Washington Post, NBC/Survey Monkey, American Research Group, and Morning Consult reveal that Trump has already overcome Clinton's previous national lead.  The four polls range from Clinton now leading by four and three points, to a tie, to a two-point Trump advantage.

Senate

In Georgia, Sen. Johnny Isakson won a 77% Republican primary victory.  He will now face investment counselor Jim Barksdale (D) in what should be an easy general election contest for the two-term Senator and former House member.

New data was released in three states during the past week.  In Arizona, another survey, this one from Public Policy Polling, finds further weakness in Sen. John McCain's (R) re-election bid.  The ballot test projects him to only a 42-36% lead over Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-Flagstaff).  The results also reveal Republican primary problems, as the Senator leads former state Sen. Kelli Ward, 39-26%, with two others accounting for the remaining preference vote.  If McCain and Ward were isolated, both score 41% support.  This race will likely become a top tier challenge campaign.

Indiana Rep. Todd Young (R-Bloomington) maintains a 36-22% advantage over former Rep. Baron Hill (D) in local Bellwether Research's first general election poll since the early May Hoosier State primary.

Boston's WBUR public radio personnel conducted a New Hampshire Senate poll and, for the first time in months, Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan tops Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R).  According to the MassInc data, Hassan maintains only a 46-45% margin.  This confirms all other data that projects a toss-up race.

House

Incumbents scorched the Georgia primary.  The votes yielded several members already winning re-election since they have no further political opposition.  Reps. Buddy Carter (R-Savannah), Jody Hice (R-Monroe), and David Scott (D-Atlanta) are unopposed or face no major party opponent in November and are effectively re-elected.

Rep. Doug Collins (R-Gainesville) defeated former Congressman Paul Broun (R) and three others, capturing 61% of the vote to claim the GOP nomination outright.  He has no November opponent, and has, therefore, been re-elected to a third term.

Similarly, Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville/Marietta) also outdistanced four Republican opponents and garnered 60% of the vote.  The Congressman has only a minor Democratic challenger to overcome in his bid for a second term.

Reps. Austin Scott (R-Tifton) and Rick Allen (R-Augusta) easily won their primaries, both capturing close to 80% of the vote.  They have only minor Democratic opponents for the fall.

A run-off will occur in Rep. Lynn Westmoreland's (R-Grantville) open 3rd District.  State Sen. Mike Crane and West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson will meet in a July 26th run-off to determine who succeeds the retiring Congressman.

In Texas, two candidates won run-off elections that assure them a seat in the new Congress.  Former Texas Tech Chancellor Jodey Arrington overcame Lubbock Mayor Glen Robertson to win the Republican run-off.  Since Democrats did not file a candidate, Mr. Arrington will replace retiring Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R-Lubbock) next year.  

Moving to the Texas-Mexico border, attorney Vincente Gonzalez easily claimed the Democratic run-off and will come to Washington next year succeeding retiring ten-term Congressman Ruben Hinojosa (D-McAllen), who is retiring.  

Additionally, two new retirements were announced during the week, both for unfortunate health reasons.

Hawaii freshman Rep. Mark Takai (D-Aiea/Honolulu) informed the public that his pancreatic cancer has spread and he no longer can seek re-election.  The disease was diagnosed last year, and he had surgery in November.  Doctors cleared the Congressman fit to run again, but now his health has deteriorated to the point that he can no longer continue.  Democrats will likely retain the open seat, particularly with a presidential election year turnout model, but the district can be competitive.

In southwest Florida, two-term Rep. Curt Clawson (R-Bonita Springs/Ft. Myers) is also stepping down from his safe Republican seat in order to care for his ailing father.  This will ignite a crowded Republican August 30th primary.  

Former congressional candidate and current Sanibel Island City Councilman Chauncey Goss already announced that he will run for the seat.  Mr. Goss is the son of former U.S. Representative and CIA Director J. Porter Goss (R).  Former Vatican City Ambassador Patrick Rooney (R) also entered this race.  Ex-state Rep. Paige Kreegel, who was a candidate in the 2014 special election that elected Clawson, said he will "probably run" now that the seat has again come open.

 

 

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